pythia pythia.uprootiny.dev

Experiments in forecasting — and in being honestly uncertain.

Pythia is the lab's forecasting bench: quantitative models, calibrated predictions, and the discipline of measuring how often you were actually right.

Lines of work

numeraiTournament forecasting pipelines — feature engineering, ensembling, and signal that survives out of sample. Python · Rust
calibrationTooling to score predictions over time: Brier, log-loss, reliability curves. A forecast without a track record is a guess. research
belief graphsCertainty as a first-class value — strength/confidence pairs propagated through a reasoning graph. Elixir

The stance

Most “AI prediction” skips the only part that matters: keeping score. Pythia treats every forecast as a claim with a deadline and a ledger. The interesting work isn't the model — it's the apparatus around it that tells you, ruthlessly, whether to trust it.

Forecasting, calibration, or quant ML?
Open to collaboration and contract work in this space.
Get in touch the lab